Retail Sales Preview: Can The American Consumer Lift The Greenback?

After a run of poor inflation data from the United States this week the greenback is trading on the defensive ahead of today’s US retail sales release. Retail sales are predicted to increase 0.4% this month, which is marginally lower than the 0.5% figure seen last month.

Any downside misses in retail sales would likely send the greenback lower and if we take recent inflation and consumer confidence data from the United States, we could see a softer number coming out later today.

US consumer confidence dipped to it lowest level since December 2017 during the month of August, while PPI and CPI in August both came in worse than expected. Strong consumer confidence and rising inflation are both key metric’s needed to boost spending in the US economy; it now remains to be seen if the average earnings pick-up inside the August payrolls job report will or can translate into today’s retail sales number.

The U.S. Dollar Index has probed the key 94.40 level this morning and bounced, this now become key support prior to 94.18 and 94.00. To the upside, the 94.75 and 94.89 levels are key short-term resistance areas to watch if we see a pop-higher in the greenback.

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